HOOVER, Ala. — The goal for Mississippi State University baseball this week no longer is to bring a tournament championship trophy home to Starkville.
The Bulldogs have higher aspirations.
MSU (36-21) earned its fifth consecutive victory against a top-25 opponent in less than week Wednesday with a 3-2 upset of No. 2 LSU on day two of the Southeastern Conference tournament at Regions Park. The Bulldogs are creating a lot of chatter after winning their fifth in a row, and 15th in their past 20, to improve to 14-5 against Southeastern Conference in that stretch.
“We still have a lot left to play for in this tournament,” MSU coach John Cohen said. “I think a regional host site invitation is still up in the air. That’s something that is extremely important, and we’d like to think if we keep playing and keep moving this thing to the final then we can get in the conversation.”
MSU’s momentum has forced many to wonder how high in the NCAA tournament seedings an undefeated run in the SEC tournament could take it.
“I don’t know if (hosting a regional) is realistic, but it’s something we’re fighting for this week,” Cohen said.
Despite a sweep against the University of Kentucky and wins against the University of Arkansas and LSU to open the SEC tournament, none of the national writers who produce NCAA tournament projections think MSU has done enough to bring an NCAA Regional back to Dudy Noble Field for the first time since 2003. The NCAA will announce its 64-team bracket and eight national seeds at 11 a.m. Monday (ESPNU).
“It’s just not going to happen,” Baseball America national writer Aaron Fitt said. “The Bulldogs have finished strong, but there are just too many really strong host candidates in front of them who have been more consistent all season long.”
MSU Director of Athletics Scott Stricklin confirmed to The Dispatch this week the school’s athletic department has submitted a mandatory monetary bid to the NCAA office to host a Regional and Super Regional, leaving it up to the 10-person NCAA selection committee.
The problem for MSU is its record against the top 100 teams
according to the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI). The Bulldogs, who are No. 20 in the latest RPI ratings, are 22-19 record vs. the RPI top 100, which includes a 5-12 mark away from Starkville. Nearly every team that above them in the latest RPI ratings have more wins against the top 100 or better winning percentages in those games.
Fitt said one might need a map more than a chart or spreadsheet to track the late decisions about host sites.
“In the West, there are five teams who have legit hosting-caliber résumés (University of California at Los Angeles, University of Oregon, Stanford University, University of Arizona, and University of California at Fullerton), and one of them is likely to be snubbed,” Fitt said. “There are 17 teams that should host, and that’s not counting MSU, for only 16 spots. And all of those teams have better bodies of work than MSU.”
SEbaseball.com editor and founder Mark Etheridge wrote about MSU’s unheralded case to host an NCAA Region on Tuesday after No. 24 MSU defeated No. 25 Arkansas 9-1 in the first round of the SEC tournament.
For MSU’s case to play host to a Regional in Starkville to improve, all of these circumstances likely would need to happen this week:
n The University of Virginia (36-16) would need to lose all three of its pool play games of the 2012 Atlantic Coast Conference tournament (vs. Clemson University, Georgia Tech, and the University of North Carolina).
n Purdue University (40-12), which won the Big Ten Conference regular-season crown for the first time in 103 years, goes 0-2 in the league tournament. That would make the Big Ten a guaranteed two-bid league, so NCAA tournament bubble teams hoping to get a bid would be unhappy.
The Boilermakers are an interesting case because their on-campus stadium can’t host an NCAA Regional due to problems with facility access and a lack of exterior lighting. University officials tried to speed up the construction of their multi-million dollar ballpark being built near the current facility. However, after announcing the project wouldn’t be ready until July, Purdue officials asked the NCAA for permission to move a regional hosted by their school to the US Steel Yard Ballpark in Gary, Ind.
“With the shortage of viable Northern options, the Boilermakers are a strong bet to host even without a suitable home ballpark,” Etheridge said. “They are expected to host in Gary at US Steel Yard Ballpark. It is hard to imagine a scenario where Purdue’s historic season is not rewarded with a host site.”
The Gary Regional is where several national projections have MSU headed as a strong No. 2 seed against a non-national seed.
n Fullerton (33-18) loses all three games of a weekend series at Long Beach State. That would help MSU’s cause if the University of Arizona (36-16) loses all three games of a weekend series at Arizona
State. The Sun Devils are ineligible for NCAA postseason play for off-the-field infractions.
The NCAA tournament committee also is likely to consider the University of Kentucky (42-15), which will face MSU for the fourth time in the past seven days today on day three of the SEC tournament.
“There is always a ‘but’, and I wonder what would happen if Mississippi State would defeat LSU, beat Kentucky Thursday, and then defeat the Wildcats again Saturday,” Etheridge said. “That would mean the Bulldogs went 5-0 against Kentucky. That kind of dominance might resonate enough to send some teams to Starkville next week and put the Wildcats on the road to Gary for the Purdue Regional.”
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