WHAT MUST IMPROVE
Mississippi State’s secondary needs to improve. In back-to-back victories against Alabama-Birmingham and South Alabama, MSU’s pass defense allowed 723 yards. The Bulldogs are 13th in the Southeastern Conference in passing yards allowed.
But are those stats misleading? Through its first three games, MSU has shifted its defensive personnel constantly, and the starting 11 has averaged just over 35 snaps per game. That means that a great deal of the yardage has come against backups, such as when third-string cornerback Jahmere Irvin-Sills, a redshirt freshman, was beaten for a 75-yard touchdown by UAB with 38 seconds to go in Mississippi State’s 47-34 win.
Further, South Alabama, unable to run the ball to the tune of 57 yards on 27 carries, passed almost exclusively, throwing the ball 55 times. And while the Jaguars moved the ball well at times, the pass-heavy game plan resulted in a five-sack, four-turnover showing by the MSU defense.
But even if the numbers are a bit misleading, it is clear that going forward, teams will likely attempt to pick on MSU’s secondary, which has struggled at times.
For LSU, that means leaning on sophomore quarterback Anthony Jennings, who has passed for 596 yards and five touchdowns this season while completing just 51 percent of his pass attempts.
KEY FORMATION
Against South Alabama, MSU had a great deal of success on third down, as the Bulldogs experimented with a three-man front that included sophomore Chris Jones and junior Ryan Brown. This allowed linebackers like Benardrick McKinney and Beniquez Brown the chance to either blitz or drop back into coverage, giving the Bulldogs eight defenders in the secondary. As a result, this particular three-man front delivered three sacks and a forced fumble. Smith in particular was dominant in the 3-man front, as he recorded one sack from his position in the middle and harassed South Alabama quarterback Brandon Bridge into escaping the pocket directly into the arms of Jones for another sack.
If MSU can force LSU into obvious passing situations on third-and-long, it could present opportunities for MSU to present its 3-man front and give Smith an obvious speed mismatch against the interior of LSU’s offensive line.
KEY BULLDOG
As much as the last bit suggests that Smith should be the key defensive Bulldog, that honor instead belongs to McKinney, MSU’s All-America candidate at middle linebacker.
So far this season, like MSU, LSUs offense has managed to present a balanced offensive attack, as the Tigers have used the run and the pass effectively. Without a dominant force at quarterback like Zach Mettenberger from 2013, LSU will likely have to depend on playcalling and the ability to keep MSU’s defense guessing. That’s where McKinney steps in.
A tremendous run-stopper and always a threat to blitz, McKinney gives MSU a versatile game-changer in the middle and could provide a counter-punch to LSU’s quest for balance. If the Tigers decide to run behind their mammoth offensive line, then McKinney and his linebackers will be crucial to stopping that, and if the Tigers decide to pass, look for McKinney, who has sacks in consecutive games, to blitz often.
STATISTIC TO WATCH
Quarterback hurries. Though LSU’s offensive line struggled a bit against Louisiana-Monroe, there’s no doubt that LSU’s strength offensively is up front, and the Tigers will lean heavily on that group to provide running lanes for tailbacks Leonard Fournette and Kenny Hilliard. But more importantly, the LSU offensive line’s primary job will be keeping quarterback Anthony Jennings, a true sophomore making his fifth career start, upright. MSU’s best chance to disrupt LSU’s offensive flow is to get to Jennings early and often, and the Bulldogs have shown that ability against lesser competition early this season, as MSU’s defense leads the SEC with 29 tackles for loss and is tied for the lead in sacks with 11. If that defensive pressure continues and the Bulldogs are able to harass Jennings, it could prove to be a game-changer.
SURPRISE PLAYER
Justin Cox. While Mississippi State’s defense has struggled against the pass in the previous two weeks, lost in the criticism following the back-to-back efforts is the fact that Cox, a senior safety, barely played. Against UAB, which passed for 435 yards on the Bulldogs, Cox was not on the field for any of the Blazers’ big plays offensively, and he missed the South Alabama game entirely.
While the former All-American at East Mississippi Community College hasn’t yet shown the form that resulted in 11 interceptions in his two years at Scooba, he brings elements of speed and athleticism to the MSU defensive backfield that can’t be duplicated. The West Point product is expected to play after missing the South Alabama game, and if he plays a great deal, he could be a difference-maker.
STRENGTHS VS. WEAKNESSES
In the case of these two teams, it’s almost a case of strengths vs. strengths. LSU has an offensive line littered with potential All-SEC performers, like left tackle La’El Collins, while Mississippi State counters with one of the league’s top defensive lines behind Smith and Jones.
For MSU, the strength is most assuredly the front seven, and it will be up to this group to grind and pound long enough to make a weakness evident in LSU’s O-line. If that happens, the onus could be on true sophomore QB Anthony Jennings to win the game. Helping him do that will be a wide receivers group that is led by Travian Dural, who leads the conference with 12 catches for 370 yards and four touchdowns. Dural, averaging a conference-best 123 yards per game, will be a focal point for an MSU secondary looking to atone for struggles against UAB and South Alabama.
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