TUSCALOOSA, Ala.
There is but one question that will be on the minds of Mississippi State fans today.
MSU, No. 1 in the polls and No. 1 in the College Football Playoff ratings, fell to Alabama 25-20 on Saturday.
What MSU fans want to know is how far that fall will be.
While the Bulldogs should find themselves in the top 10 of the two polls, the real suspense will linger until Tuesday when the CFP ratings come out. Will MSU still be among the top four, or will the Bulldogs find themselves behind some other one-loss teams?
Ultimately, it could come down to another question, one that has been asked since the four-team championship playoff was adopted before the beginning of the 2014 season: Given the SEC’s dominance (seven national champions and a national champion runner-up in eight-straight years), is it possible for two SEC teams to make the four-team playoff?
And what if the second SEC team isn’t a traditional power? What then?
Tuesday’s CFP standings will tell at least part of the story, although not all of it.
Asked after the game if his team was still one of the top four, Mullen at first demurred.
“I don’t know,” he said. “I don’t have a vote. I don’t sit in the meetings, so I don’t know the criteria.”
In next breath, he made the Bulldogs’ case.
“If it’s strength of schedule, we’re in,” he said. “We’re the only team in the country that has played four top-10 teams and we’re won three of them. Nobody else can say that. So, yeah, all of our goals are still out there for us. We haven’t lost any of them.”
The Bulldogs’ prospects might have never have been in question had the Bulldogs not stumbled out of the gates against the Crimson Tide.
MSU gave up a safety for the game’s first points, a play that underscored how difficult it would be for the Bulldogs to run the ball. On an offense built around the run game, Alabama held MSU 117 yards below its per-game average and 2 yards below its average yards-per-rushing attempt.
Throw in three Dak Prescott interceptions, two in the red zone, and its pretty easy to see where the game was won and lost.
And yet while no one is stubborn enough to argue with a scoreboard, you can make a pretty strong case the Bulldogs weren’t that far away from a victory.
Even with its struggles in the running game and its minus-three effort in turnovers, MSU outgained Alabama by almost 100 yards and held it almost 200 yards below its average.
Given Alabama’s dominance at home — the Crimson Tide had outscored its four previous visitors 194-33 — that MSU could emerge from a 19-0 deficit is something that shouldn’t be ignored.
All losses aren’t created equal.
So how far will Bulldogs fall?
There are a number of factors that can still help or hinder MSU’s status.
First, MSU must win its remaining games against Vanderbilt and Ole Miss, which knows a thing or two about tough losses, too.
Bulldog fans should be rooting for Ole Miss next week against Arkansas because MSU needs another shot at a win against a top-10 team. The Rebels currently occupy that spot. No other one-loss team could boast four wins in five games against top-10 teams.
Having a couple of Power 5 conference champions with two losses wouldn’t hurt, either.
But the best route to the playoffs is an Auburn win against Alabama in the Iron Bowl, which would assure a one-loss MSU of a berth in the SEC Championship game.
Fair or unfair, that might be the Bulldogs’ best shot.
The more immediate glimpse into the state of the Bulldogs playoff hopes comes Tuesday.
It’s hard to imagine the fall will be too great.
All things considered, there is nothing to justify a spot below fourth.
If that’s true, Saturday’s loss will be more of a flesh wound than a mortal blow.
Slim Smith is a columnist and feature writer for The Dispatch. His email address is [email protected].
Slim Smith is a columnist and feature writer for The Dispatch. His email address is [email protected].
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