With all of the acronyms — RPI and SOS — flying around at this time of the year, three words might mean more to help turn things in favor of the Mississippi State women’s basketball team.
No bad losses.
MSU has recorded a program-best 26 victories, including a team-best 11 in the Southeastern Conference, this season thanks in part to its ability to do what it was supposed to: Win games it had scheduled.
As much as coach Vic Schaefer believes one more free throw would have helped his team flip losses to LSU and to Kentucky, he won’t receive any argument from anyone who follows Division I women’s college basketball when he says the Bulldogs don’t have any bad losses.
In addition to the setback against LSU, MSU (26-6) has two losses to Kentucky, a loss at Vanderbilt, a loss at Tennessee, and a loss at South Carolina on its ledger. Those results likely have been on the mind of the NCAA tournament selection committee for a long time as it has worked toward finalizing the field of 64 teams for the NCAA tournament.
At 6 p.m. Monday, MSU will find out its other dancing partners when the pairings for the NCAA tournament are announced on ESPN. MSU will celebrate it first trip to the NCAA tournament since the 2009-10 season with a free event Monday night at the Dawg House Sports Grill on 217 E. Main St. in downtown Starkville. The program will begin at 5:30 p.m. In addition to the selection show, fans can enjoy food and beverage specials.
Schaefer said Thursday he has spent a lot of time recently crunching the numbers and trying to figure out a best-case scenario under which his program would get a chance to stay at home and build on a 17-1 record at Humphrey Coliseum. He knows others like Stanford, North Carolina, California, and George Washington also have strong records and plenty of selling points, but he points to the fact that his team finished third in the SEC, which has been one of the top three leagues in the nation all season, and that there are no blemishes on the Bulldogs’ ledger.
“We have no bad losses and those other schools do,” Schaefer said.
North Carolina has the best argument over MSU. The Tar Heels (24-8, 10-6 Atlantic Coast Conference) defeated Stanford 70-54 on Nov. 28. North Carolina’s “worst” loss was an 84-59 loss to Pittsburgh on Jan. 8. The Panthers (19-11, 9-7) finished seventh in the ACC. Working against the Tar Heels is the fact that they have only on win (Florida State) against the top five teams in the ACC.
George Washington’s 29-3 record (15-1 Atlantic 10) is the best of any of the five teams that figure to be in the discussion for the final No. 4 seeds. The Colonials’ only league loss was to Saint Louis (15-16), which finished ninth in the league. It also lost to Florida Gulf Coast and Maryland. Working against it is the fact that George Washington’s “best” non-conference wins are against North Carolina State (16-14) and Fresno State (22-9).
Stanford (24-9) and California (23-9) tied for third in the Pacific-12 Conference regular-season standings at 13-5. But Stanford lost to an Arizona (10-20) team with a RPI of 214 and at Oregon (13-17) to a team with a RPI of 180, while California lost back-to-back games against Kansas (15-17, RPI of 105) and Long Beach State (22-9, RPI of 111).
ESPN.com’s Charlie Creme’s latest NCAA tournament bracket has California as a No. 4 seed and playing host to a group of teams that includes South Dakota State, MSU, and Pittsburgh. He also has George Washington, Kentucky, and Stanford as No. 4 seeds. He lists MSU, Princeton, Ohio State, and North Carolina as No. 5 seeds.
On the flip side, the ACC has the most teams (eight) in Creme’s bracket, while the SEC has seven. The Pacific-12 Conference has five teams in Creme’s bracket.
Schaefer feels that the overall strength of the SEC will help its team when members of the NCAA tournament selection committee break down the strengths of the top 16 seeds.
“Even South Carolina (which spent the majority of the season ranked No. 1) couldn’t navigate the schedule unscathed,” Schaefer said. “It’s just a monster of a league.”
Schaefer also points to the fact that MSU lost to LSU 71-69 in double overtime without senior center Martha Alwal. He also pointed out that freshman Victoria Vivians suffered a thumb injury in the second half as Kentucky was making a run and turning the tide in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament. With 30 years experience as a Division I coach, Schaefer hopes the NCAA tournament selection committee has done its research and knows those things, as well as the fact that the Bulldogs potentially were two free throws from finishing 13-3 in the SEC.
A 76-67 to Kentucky in the quarterfinals of the Southeastern Conference tournament on March 6 finalized MSU’s resume. Regardless of how you crunch the numbers, the Bulldogs’ body of work is impressive. In addition to setting school records for overall wins and league victories, MSU finished third (11-5) in the SEC, which matched the best league finish in program history.
Building off a run to the quarterfinals of the Women’s National Invitation tournament last season, MSU also shattered its attendance records, finishing fifth in the SEC with an average attendance of 3,755, the best in program history, and a season total of 67,598 for 18 dates at Humphrey Coliseum. That total also is a program record. MSU wrapped up its home schedule with a program-record crowd of 7,326, the largest in Mississippi history for a women’s college basketball game, for its 55-47 win against Ole Miss.
Creme has said the NCAA tournament selection committee doesn’t consider attendance figures when it determines its top seeds. This season, the top four seeds in each of the tournament’s four brackets will get a chance to play host to the first and second rounds. MSU’s attendance figures are better than Stanford (3,693), North Carolina (3,467), California (2,676), and George Washington (880).
Unfortunately, MSU’s attendance numbers and the fact that it doesn’t have any bad losses might be its best arguments in its case to earn a chance to play host to the NCAA tournament for the first time. Even though MSU is ranked No. 12 in The Associated Press and No. 14 in the USA Today polls, the committee doesn’t use those rankings in its evaluation of the teams. Instead, the tournament selection committee relies on Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) and Strength of Schedule (SOS) as two of its tools. Through March 14, MSU’s RPI (29) was the lowest when compared to Stanford (18), North Carolina (16), California (24), and George Washington (11).
MSU also falls short in terms of SOS, according to WarrenNolan.com. With a 10-0 record against teams with RPIs of 200 and higher, MSU’s SOS is 73 compared to Stanford (12), North Carolina (11), California (19), and George Washington (52).
Follow Dispatch sports editor Adam Minichino on Twitter @ctsportseditor
Adam Minichino is the former Sports Editor for The Commercial Dispatch.
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