A Mississippi State University political expert is predicting a win for Republican challenger Alan Nunnelee in the 1st Congressional District, since incumbent Democrat Travis Childers no longer has the luxury of running alongside a popular presidential candidate.
The prediction by Marty Wiseman, director of the Stennis Institute of Government and nationally recognized authority on Southern politics, came at an election refresher Wednesday at the university, courtesy of Wiseman and other political experts.
Wiseman said the seven third party candidates running in the 1st District on essentially Republican principles could hurt Nunnelee, but doesn”t believe they”ll steal enough votes to cost him the race.
Others speaking at the forum included Robbin Mellen, an assistant professor of political science and public administration at MSU, whose research focus includes midterm elections, and state Sen. Terry Burton, chairman of the joint legislative redistricting committee. Each offered their opinions on the candidates, races and issues to watch during the Nov. 2 midterm elections.
Mellen kicked off the forum, addressing a packed auditorium at Mitchell Memorial Library. It should be noted, however, that many of the students were present at the behest of their professors, receiving either extra credit or attendance credit.
Mellen began by recapping trends associated with midterm elections.
The president”s party, he said, has lost seats in all but two midterm elections since 1934.
“The country tends to divide the government between the president and congress,” he said, noting the electorate”s traditional inclination to elect a majority Republican congress under a Democratic president, and vice versa.
Redistricting will also play a large role in country”s future political landscape.
Following the 2000 census, when Republicans controlled congress, Mullen said 234 congressional districts were drawn by state legislatures favoring Republicans. However, following the unpopularity of George W. Bush”s presidency, he says Democrats currently hold 69 of those; a huge percentage.
With Republicans again gaining in popularity, Mellen believes the country could see a repeat.
“It”s likely we”ll see more Republicans in congress for the next 10 years because districts will be redrawn to benefit Republicans,” he said.
While Mellen expects the Republicans to take the House, he says the Senate is a toss-up. However, he believes marijuana could make the difference.
The California Senate race, he says, could potentially dictate which party controls the Senate. And the driving issue in that race is the legalization of marijuana, with Democrats taking up the pro position and Republicans assuming the con.
Wiseman”s comments centered on the often-discussed yet little-known nationwide political influence of Gov. Haley Barbour.
“He”s probably the most superb political strategist on the (political) stage,” said Wiseman. “Folks don”t laugh when people say Haley could run for president.”
Barbour is or has been involved in 37 gubernatorial races, said Wiseman, and his political action committee has raised more money than the Republican National Convention this year.
Turning his attention briefly to Sarah Palin, Wiseman praised the former Alaska governor”s use of social media to make herself directly accessible to the public, but predicted she would need a more experienced and traditional “meaty” running mate, like Barbour, on the ticket to have a realistic shot at the Oval Office.
“I never considered whole Sara Palin-Haley Barbour alliance thing, which is really cool that Mississippi governor is so prominent with the Republican Party nationwide. It says a lot about what he”s done,” said Taylor Lawrence, 19, a history major from Pascagoula.
The first of a handful of questions from the audience asked the speakers” opinions on Palin”s chances should she decide to run for president.
Wiseman concluded on a somber note, expressing his discomfort with the trend of campaigns deteriorating into extended personal attacks.
“It”s troubling there”s no more compromise. I”m seeing a wall being built between both sides of the political aisle. That terrifies me more than anything,” he said. “We”re getting away from debating ideas and more about making a loser out of the person holding those ideas.”
Burton focused his comments on the challenge of redistricting, explaining the importance of keeping variation in the number of citizens in each district as limited as possible and avoiding split districts.
He also addressed the very real possibility of state representatives being forced to run for their offices twice, once before and again after census figures are released and districts redrawn.
“Nobody wants to run twice in 2012,” he said.
DeAndra Steele, 21, a secondary education major from Moss Point, said she wasn”t surprised to hear the panelists” predictions that Republicans would take the House of Representatives, but she wanted to hear her professors explain how. And she wanted extra credit for attending the forum.
What Christopher Betts, 19, a business administration and political science major from Bolingbrook, Ill., didn”t hear was balance.
“I expected it to be more of a Republican bias because of where we are. I did kind of wish we had a little bit more from the other side,” he said. “Some of it was factual information, but some of the things they added were kinda more leaning to (the conservative) side. I would have liked to hear the Democratic stance for a little contrast so I could base my judgment on who was right.”
All students participating in a quick poll following the forum expressed their intentions to vote, although several had no idea how to cast an absentee ballot.
Jason Browne was previously a reporter for The Dispatch.
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