STARKVILLE
The numbers are coming fast and furious at the Mississippi State women’s basketball team.
Whether it is national rankings or watch lists or home attendance figures, each day seems to bring an item that increases the excitement surrounding the program.
Let’s catch up:
n On Friday, MSU drew a crowd of 6,463 for its season-opening victory against Samford. The final tally was the second-largest crowd for a women’s game at the Hump.
n On Monday, MSU moved up one place to No. 10 in The Associated Press Top 25. It marks the second time in program history MSU has been ranked in the top 10.
n On Tuesday, MSU received a double dose of great news. First, MSU moved up two places in the USA Today Coaches poll to No. 11. Later in the day, sophomore Victoria Vivians was named to the John R. Wooden Preseason Top 30 Watch List.
That’s dizzying stuff, especially for a team that has played only one game, even if that squad was picked third and fourth in the Southeastern Conference preseason polls by the media and the league’s coaches.
The progress coach Vic Schaefer and his coaching staff have made in their fourth year means even more when you consider MSU’s only other top-10 appearance in a national poll was March 3, 2003, when it also was No. 10.
But all of those numbers are based on the expectations of MSU and the potential people see in the Bulldogs. As you weigh how much you’re going to buy in, consider another number: 32.5 percent. That was MSU’s shooting percentage from the field in a 68-47 victory against Samford.
One game is hardly a representative sample size, but you have to wonder what that percentage says about the 2015-16 Bulldogs, especially after an offseason in which so many players worked hard to improve their games. It’s safe to say MSU’s offensive performance against a smaller, less athletic team wasn’t what Schaefer wanted to see. You can chalk some of the performance to foul trouble on Vivians’ part, the anxiety of playing a season opener in front of a big crowd, and the pressure many of the Bulldogs felt or put on themselves to make an impression.
That being said, another number — 45 percent — tells us a lot about what it takes to be an upper echelon team in Division I women’s basketball. Since 2000 (16 seasons), the SEC hasn’t had more than five teams in a season shoot better than 45 percent from the field. MSU has eclipsed that mark only twice — 46.7 (2000) and 46 (2002) — in that span.
Why is that number so important? If you look at 10-time national champion Connecticut, Geno Auriemma’s program has shot 50 percent or better from the field six times in the last 16 seasons. Each time the Huskies won a national title.
The numbers are staggering for the rest of the country. Using 44.9 percent shooting from the field as a cut-off point (45.9 in 2001 and 2000 because complete figures aren’t available), UConn doesn’t have much competition. In the last 16 seasons, there have been only seven times 20 or more teams from more than 320 in all of Division I have shot better than 45.9 or 44.9 percent. In the last nine seasons, there has been only one season, 2014 (20 teams). In that span, the number of teams in Division I has grown to 343.
In the last seven seasons, UConn, Notre Dame, and Baylor are the only programs that have shot 50 percent or better from the field.
For comparison, MSU shot 39.7 percent from the field in its 22-win season in 2013-14 and 39.8 percent last season en route to a 27-win campaign and a trip to the second round of the NCAA tournament.
Schaefer knows those numbers. Someone who has an esteemed title like “Secretary of Defense” understands the importance of keeping shooting percentages low, but he also believes his team will have to increase its efficiency on offense if it is going to live up to all of the numbers that have come its way. That’s why he talked in the preseason about encouraging junior Dominique Dillingham to raise her shooting percentage, about the possible emergence of sophomore guard Kayla Nevitt, and about the continued maturation of Vivians, the team’s leading scorer (14.9 points per game) last season.
MSU has enough depth and talent that it doesn’t have to rely on Vivians to be its first and second option on offense. That is asking a lot from a player who took double the number of shots (465) of every player on the team except Breanna Richardson (247) last season. It’s undeniable Vivians has range to West Point, but the numbers don’t lie and she shot 36.8 percent from the field.
As you consider MSU’s statistics, here are some numbers from No. 1 UConn’s 100-56 victory against No. 7 Ohio State on Monday. The Huskies shot 19 of 36 from the field (52.8 percent) in the first half and 18 of 29 (62.1) in the second half. They had five players in double figures and 16 assists on 37 baskets for a final percentage of 56.9.
Wow. You can argue UConn had a great night or that it was energized by a matchup against a top-10 team that thought it was ready to challenge a program that has won the last three national championships.
What you can’t argue is UConn shares the basketball. There were numerous instances multiple UConn players passed up good shots for better shots, if not great ones. Granted, the Huskies have some of the nation’s most talented players, but their willingness to play together and to work toward a common goal makes them even better.
espnW.com’s Graham Hays said it best Tuesday when he wrote, “What matters most is what is made of that talent.” Hays was talking about the recent recruiting success of coach Kevin McGuff at Ohio State and his efforts to build that program into a national contender. His point was UConn still makes the most out of its talent. The numbers back that up.
That is MSU’s challenge. The bull’s eye already is there, and it will get bigger with each victory and each step up the national rankings. Non-conference games against Texas and South Florida will provide the best gauges of MSU’s growth from last season and potential for this season.
Judge for yourself by following the numbers. Shooting percentage will be the most important number. Schaefer’s teams always are going to play good — if not great — defense, so you can bet the Bulldogs will be in every game and find ways to win even when they don’t shoot well.
But MSU’s shooting percentage and execution on offense will have to improve if it is going to take the next step. The talent is there. There is no question. Now it is up to the players to realize their potential and play together so they can put up even bigger numbers.
Adam Minichino is sports editor of The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter @ctsportseditor. You can email him at [email protected].
Adam Minichino is the former Sports Editor for The Commercial Dispatch.
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