When the prep football season started in August, Columbus and Starkville were both ranked in several statewide polls.
Neither the Falcons nor the Yellow Jackets were the odds-on favorites for the Mississippi High School Activities Association (MHSAA) Class 6A state championship.
However, each squad was projected to be in the mix. With a break or two, either could find themselves in Starkville for state championship weekend.
Fast-forward by 11 weeks and the final week of the regular season finds each in an unusual spot.
Columbus has to beat Hernando at home and Starkville has to beat Clinton on the road for both squads to reach the postseason.
How in the world did this happen?
Columbus is 5-5 overall and 3-3 in Class 6A, Region 1. It is hard to tell whether the Falcons have underachieved or simply been unlucky.
There is little doubt that the region is much better than it was a year ago. Last season, Columbus won its first five region games and actually had second place already nailed down before the kickoff of its regular-season finale at Hernando.
This year, Tupelo is the region leader, undefeated and the state’s top-ranked team. South Panola is offensively-challenged. However, the Tigers have ridden the state’s best defense to a firm grasp of second in the region.
After that, Columbus, Hernando and Horn Lake are in the mix for the third and fourth final playoff spots in the region. Horn Lake has gone from two to eight victories this season. Hernando has gone from seven to eight victories.
The Falcons needed to throw the ball better this year. C.J. Gholar has done just that.
The Falcons needed to keep their running backs healthy. That has been a mixed bag with Kylin Hill and Kendre Conner both missing some time. However, Conner was slowed over half of last season, as well.
The Falcons needed to improve on the offensive line. After a slow start, that group has rounded into shape and done a great job of giving Hill, Conner, Gholar and Patrick Jackson running lanes.
The Falcons needed to have a receiver emerge. Senior Michael McCloud has become one of the best pass-catching targets in Class 6A.
For Columbus, the struggle has been on defense. Even when the Falcons play lights out like they did against both West Point and South Panola, the end result has not been kind.
It’s hard to define breaks in football. However, they are important and they are needed. A runner staying in bounds, a blocked kick going the right direction, going into the wind at the right time, an official throwing the pass interference flag when things could go either way. There are tons of ways to have breaks.
During its eight-win season a year ago, Columbus caught the breaks. The Falcons had good talent, good coaching and good fortune.
Typically, a team can afford one bad region loss. The cream rises to the top and if you are one of the four best teams in the region, it usually sorts itself out in the end.
However, Columbus’ stunning loss to Horn Lake may wind up being what kills this season. In 2014, a bizarre home loss to Northwest Rankin left the Falcons for dead.
A very deep senior class will play its final home game Friday. There will be a lot of emotion in the stadium. Due to the tie-breaking formula, Columbus may have to win by seven or more to make the postseason.
This team is due a good game and due some breaks. Friday night would be a good time for both to happen.
Starkville is 7-3 overall and 4-2 in Class 6A, Region 1. The Yellow Jackets’ playoff scenario is more clear. A road win at Clinton by any margin puts Starkville back in the postseason as a No. 2 seed.
A year ago, Starkville still had to finish strong with key games against Warren Central and Clinton to end the year. However, the Yellow Jackets passed both tests and finished with a 7-0 region mark.
This season, a stunning loss to Northwest Rankin is proving difficult to overcome. Much like in Region 1, the fifth-place team in this region will be very good but at home.
Starkville did have some questions coming in after last season’s run to a state championship. However, it did appear the Yellow Jackets had some answers.
The Yellow Jackets needed to find a quarterback. That is still ongoing as four players have taken snaps, including linebacker Willie Gay out of the wildcat formation in last week’s win over Warren Central.
The Yellow Jackets needed to keep Andreus Swanigan healthy. Swanigan has been in and out of the lineup. That being said, Rodrigues Clark has done a great job, while leading the team in rushing. However, Clark is now out for the year.
The Yellow Jackets needed growth and maturity on the offensive line. Starkville has made strides here. While it has been a dominant rushing attack, it has certainly been adequate enough to win on most nights.
The Yellow Jackets needed another great year on defense. Quite simply, there have been nights when Gay has had little help.
Clinton wins the region title with a win here. Under that scenario, Madison Central nails down second with a win over Greenville.
If Clinton closes the deal, Starkville will look back on this season as the one that got away.
Much like Columbus, Starkville needs to play its best game Friday night. A break or two would help their cause as well.
It’s been a bizarre season. We shall see if it has a bizarre ending.
Scott Walters is a sports writer for The Dispatch. He can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @dispatchscott.
Scott was sports editor for The Dispatch.
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