The buzz has started.
Could all 13 Southeastern Conference softball-playing schools make the NCAA tournament?
The league has received an all-time best 11 invites in each of the last four seasons.
However, the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) figures indicate a higher number might be on the horizon.
The SEC RPIs stack up this way: Auburn (three), Florida (five), Texas A&M (seven), LSU (10), Alabama (12), Tennessee (13), Kentucky (17), South Carolina (19), Georgia (22), Missouri (25), Arkansas (27), Mississippi State (31), and Ole Miss (36).
MSU coach Vann Stuedeman is trying to make her fifth regional in six seasons as a head coach. Overall, the Bulldogs have played in 12 regionals. Ole Miss third-year coach Mike Smith is trying to carry the Rebels back to the postseason after making the school’s first appearance last season.
Ole Miss made the tournament, while MSU finished 26-31 and didn’t advance, so the schools never have made a regional in the same season.
The Bulldogs fell shy a year ago for two main reasons — a .252 team batting average and a 16-14 home record that included some critical non-conference losses.
With five regular-season weekends left, MSU (27-12) is hitting .286 and has games it has had to at home, going 18-4 at Nusz Park.
A year ago, seven of MSU’s eight conference opponents were ranked at some time during the season. The Bulldogs didn’t win a conference series and limped to a 3-21 mark inside the league.
A huge conference win total isn’t a must. Kentucky made a regional and advanced to a super regional after going 5-19 in league play in 2015.
This season, the MSU schedule is much more favorable. The final five series include South Carolina (2-9 in the league), Arkansas (2-7), and Kentucky (5-4) at home, as well as Auburn (6-3) and Georgia (2-7) on the road.
MSU’s strong RPI number is in large part due to conference wins against Texas A&M and Alabama.
Last season’s struggles didn’t catch Stuedeman totally off guard. She knew her squad had the nation’s toughest schedule. However, a drop of 60 points in batting average was a surprise.
The Bulldogs usually have found a way to figure enough things out to make a regional. This season should be more of the same.
MSU would have to win four of the final five series to put itself in the conversation to play host to a regional. As high as 23 earlier in the season in RPI, three losses last weekend at LSU hurt. The Bulldogs don’t have enough offensive firepower to earn a host spot but should have enough punch (with a manageable schedule) to return to the postseason.
Ole Miss’ postseason hopes are a little trickier. Smith has done wonders in each of his first two seasons — winning a then-school record 30 games in 2015 and shattering that mark with 41 wins last season.
In a rarity in college softball, the Rebels rely more on their offense (.324 batting average) than their pitching (2.48 team ERA).
Ole Miss is dealing with the brutal conference schedule that MSU faced a year ago. The Rebels have responded with a 23-4 non-conference record, which is vital when the conference schedule is loaded.
After being swept by Texas A&M and Tennessee, Ole Miss righted the ship with a series victory at home against Kentucky. That series win moved Ole Miss up to 21st in the latest NFCA Top 25. The Rebels hadn’t been ranked prior to this season, but they are in the poll for a fifth-straight week.
Unfortunately, Ole Miss’ remaining conference schedule includes LSU (7-2) and Alabama (8-4) at home and Auburn (6-3), Florida (10-1), and Missouri (3-5) on the road.
The final five Ole Miss conference opponents have a combined 34 league wins, while MSU’s slate has 17.
Ole Miss is 25-11. While the Bulldogs need two wins to clinch a winning regular season, the Rebels need four. Ole Miss still has games against Memphis, Jacksonville State, Tennessee-Martin, and Southern Mississippi.
Essentially, Ole Miss saved its season by taking the series from Kentucky. However, the Rebels still have work to be done.
Any team finishing in the top 36 in the RPI should find its way into a regional. The next qualifier is an overall winning record, and no team in the league is in danger of that not happening.
Kentucky has 24 wins, while South Carolina and Arkansas have 22 and Missouri has 20. Missouri always plays a majority of its non-conference games late in the year, so the Tigers still have 22 games left.
Only one team doesn’t qualify for the SEC tournament. As we enter the final five weekends, five teams are tied with a league-low two wins. Teams have made a regional without playing in the conference tournament, but that was when 10 teams were invited, not 12.
MSU and Ole Miss have played well enough to make the last five weekends of the season matter. In this league, they aren’t alone.
Scott Walters is a sports writer for The Dispatch. He can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @dispatchscott.
Scott was sports editor for The Dispatch.
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