STARKVILLE — Mississippi State is sitting at 1-1, but the adventure to this point has been anything but normal.
In a year beleaguered by absurdity, MSU’s .500 record consists of a win over then-No. 6 LSU and a loss to lowly Arkansas as the Bulldogs head into a Saturday date with Kentucky.
For the Wildcats, losses to Ole Miss and No. 13 Auburn have stunted what was supposed to be a promising year for coach Mark Stoops in Lexington.
With that, let’s dig into some of the matchups to watch Saturday at Kroger Field:
K.J. Costello vs. the Kentucky secondary
To be fair, this could read K.J. Costello vs. (insert team) secondary any given week. But after a wayward display against Arkansas, the former Stanford signal-caller is in major need of a strong contest.
By a pure numbers perspective, there were positives to glean from Costello’s first game at Davis Wade Stadium. He completed a school-record 43 passes, good for a 72.6 completion percentage. He’s also already passed for 936 yards and leads the country with an average of 468 pass yards per game.
But then there’s the turnovers. Two Costello fumbles against LSU nearly gifted the Tigers a win, while his three interceptions Saturday thrice stalled out drives at the MSU 46-yard-line or better.
Through two weeks of action, Kentucky’s defense, led by senior defensive back Brandon Echols and a pair of junior linebackers in Jamin Davis and DeAndre Square, is allowing just 276.5 passing yards per game. Saturday, they’ll be tested as much as they will be all season as Costello looks to channel more of his Week 1 self.
Mississippi State defensive line vs. Kentucky rushing attack
Of all the surprises this fall, MSU’s defense is perhaps the most shocking. The Bulldogs lost seven starters from a season ago but largely held LSU and Arkansas at bay during the first two weeks of the year.
The biggest problem for MSU’s youthful unit has been broken coverages, two of which resulted in Razorbacks touchdowns last week. That may not be an issue come Saturday.
In losses to Auburn and Ole Miss, Kentucky has rushed nearly twice as many times as it has passed this year. The Wildcats have also been far more effective in the run game with 553 yards on the ground compared to just 390 through the air.
Senior tailback Asim Rose and sophomore Chris Rodriguez Jr. have split carries virtually down the middle at 22 and 26 touches, respectively, while quarterback Terry Wilson also has 35 rushes for 171 yards to his name.
MSU has been stout against the run thus far, allowing just 71.5 yards per game on the ground — good for No. 6 nationally. If the Bulldogs hope to slow down the Wildcats offense, it will be in the rushing game.
Mississippi State vs. third down
The biggest difference between Week 1 and Week 2? Third-down conversions.
In its upset of LSU, MSU converted 8 of 16 third downs and 5 of 9 third-and-longs. By contrast, the Bulldogs converted just 35.3 percent of third downs against Arkansas and were 0 for 3 on third-and-long.
Throughout Saturday’s loss to Arkansas, MSU struggled to maintain a rhythm in its offense. Costello spoke at length postgame about how the Bulldogs had opportunities to grasp momentum, but the execution wasn’t there.
Over Mike Leach’s final five years at Washington State, the Cougars finished in the top 35 percent of teams in third-down conversion rate four times. At present, MSU sits 45th of 73 teams playing this fall.
Facing a Wildcats defense that’s allowing opponent third-down conversions at a 45.5 percent clip, MSU will have to improve its conversion rate to see its offense hum the way it did in Baton Rouge.
Ben Portnoy reports on Mississippi State sports for The Dispatch. Follow him on Twitter at @bportnoy15.
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